NA October Tractor Combine Analysis

October 2019 Tractor & Combine Analysis

By Charlie Glass
Total tractor sales in October fell about 8%, with utility tractors (40-100 horsepower) showing the only growth at up 6%. Compact tractor (under 40 horsepower) sales fell 11% last month and high horsepower tractors (over 100 horsepower) fell 18%.
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CNH Industrial Reports Falling Ag Sales, Acquires K-Line & ATI

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Ag Economy Barometer

Chinese Demand for Pork Fuels Import Growth from U.S., Other Countries

Forecasts for U.S. pork exports for 2019 and 2020 were recently raised, due in large part to expectations of continued significant growth in Chinese demand for U.S. pork. China’s demand for imported pork has accelerated as African Swine Fever (ASF) spread throughout China during 2018-19. While ASF does not affect human beings, it kills most infected swine and presently has no vaccine nor a cure.

In September 2019, China’s inventory of swine was down 41% from a year earlier, as many farmers slaughtered swine to prevent herds from becoming infected. By mid-October, China’s hog and pork prices had roughly doubled from previous year levels as pork supplies tightened. Click here for the full story.

  • Farmers Less Pessimistic on Trade War Outcome

    Farmers were less pessimistic in October than they were in September concerning the U.S.-China trade war. In October, 51% of respondents said that resolution soon was unlikely, which was down from a reading of 59% in September and 71% in August.

  • Farmer Sentiment Improves on Current and Future Conditions

    The Ag Economy Barometer improved to a reading of 136 in October, up 15 points compared to September, which pushed the barometer back to the same level observed in October 2018. This month’s upswing in the ag economy sentiment index was driven by an improvement in ag producers’ assessments of both current and future economic conditions in agriculture.

  • Share of Highly Leveraged Farm Businesses Forecast to Increase in 2019

    Debt-to-asset (D/A) ratios measure the amount of assets that are financed by debt and can indicate a farm’s risk exposure and ability to overcome adverse financial events. The share of farm businesses that are highly leveraged (D/A ratio between 0.41-0.70) has fallen since 2015, but is forecast to increase slightly in 2018 and 2019.

  • Farm Lending Slows but Remains at High Levels

    Growth in farm lending activity slowed in the third quarter of 2019. Following 9 consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth and a particularly notable increase a year ago, the volume of total non-real estate farm debt declined nearer to the historical third-quarter average. The primary contributor to the slowdown from sharp increases a year ago was a decline in the average size of farm operating loans. Despite a slowdown in the pace of debt accumulation, weaknesses in the sector persisted, continuing to pressure farm cash flows and agricultural credit conditions.

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