USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts inflation-adjusted net cash farm income (NCFI) to increase by $19.8 billion (17.2%) from 2020 to $134.7 billion in 2021.
In 2020, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) expects the inflation-adjusted median household income for the principal operators of commercial and intermediate U.S. farms to increase by an estimated 29.6% and 4.9%, respectively.
Inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (NCFI)—gross cash income minus cash expenses—is forecast to increase $23.4 billion (21.1%) to $134.1 billion in 2020.
Overall, U.S. farmers are expected to end up in the black for 2020, largely due to government payments aimed at lessening the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to USDA economists, net farm income (NFI) is forecast to increase $18.3 billion (up 21.7%) from 2019 to nearly $103 billion in the current cropping year.
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to pressure the agricultural economy and weighed on farm finances in the Tenth District. Farm income declined in the second quarter at the quickest pace since 2016, and weaknesses in both income and borrower liquidity were expected to carry into the coming months.
Agricultural credit conditions in the Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District deteriorated at a slightly faster pace at the onset of developments related to COVID-19. The survey for the first quarter of 2020, distributed in mid-March, indicated a larger decline in farm income and loan repayment rates than in recent quarters.
Inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income (gross cash income less cash expenses) is forecast to increase $13.6 billion (12.9%) to $119 billion in 2019.
Ag lenders in the Federal Reserve’s Ninth District remained concerned about trade and weather challenges confronting farmers but say the earlier price rally bolstered growers’ immediate outlook, says Joe Mahon, the district’s director of regional outreach, in summarizing the second quarter 2019 Agricultural Credit Conditions Survey.
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In this episode of On the Record, brought to you by Associated Equipment Distributors, we take an initial look at the Dealer Business Outlook & Trends Report and what dealers are forecasting for 2025.