U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year 2021 are expected to increase to $152 billion, up 12% from the previous year, and nearing the record set in 2014. Through 2030, exports are expected to grow 1.9% annually as the world’s economies rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic, resuming an expansion near the pre-pandemic growth path. Key to these trade projections are the outlook for the rebound and the longer-term resumption of robust economic growth in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, important developing country markets where food import demand is most sensitive to rising incomes.
Rising 2021 export values are also supported by higher near-term prices for a range of commodities, including soybeans, cotton, wheat, and meat products. The near-term price trend is anticipated to be followed by generally stable prices through 2030. High-value products, a category that includes horticultural and animal products, as well as processed and semi-processed grains and oilseeds, accounted for 69% of U.S. agricultural exports in 2020. That share is expected to drop to 64% in 2021 as export values of bulk commodities such as soybeans, cotton, and wheat surge. Exports of high-value agricultural products are expected to resume outpacing the growth in bulk commodities in fiscal years 2022 through 2030, while foreign competition is projected to continue to limit growth in U.S. bulk commodity exports over that same time period.
This chart is taken from USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030, released in February 2021.