CEMA's general Business Climate Index for the Agricultural Machinery Industry in Europe seems to have reached its peak with the past 2 months. After peaking in May and June at its highest level since 2008, the index declined by 4 points in July to 68 (on a scale of –100 to +100).
The current business continues very positive (was even evaluated slightly better than in the past 2 months), but less companies expect further turnover growth for the coming 6 months. With regard to expectations for the coming order intake (an indicator which does not feed into the general Business Climate Index), the shift was even more pronounced: the share of survey respondents expecting an increase in orders dropped to less than a third, the lowest level this year.
Another uncertainty concerns the extent to which the incoming orders can be realized against the backdrop of extreme price increases and shortages on the supplier side. More than 90% of the companies participating in the survey complain about supply bottlenecks. 36% of the respondents from the tractor factories expect a production stop due to a lack of certain parts in the coming month.
Despite all uncertainties, the European industry representatives remain confident of closing the year with strong results. With regard to the full year 2021, the survey participants forecast for their company a turnover increase of +12% (arithmetic mean) or +10% (median).