Compact tractors and 40-99 horsepower tractors sales exceeded expectations in May, while 100+ horsepower tractors, 4WD tractors and combine sales were below expectations.
Back in February, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) was projecting a $3.1 billion increase in net farm income this year. Then COVID-19 emerged. Now, a private forecast from the Food & Agriculture Policy Research Institute estimates farm income to drop roughly 11% from the USDA's original projection.
The number of new jobs developed in this economy and the growth of wages has provided many with not only more disposable income but growing retirement accounts. The strength of the smaller horsepower tractor markets is a direct result of this powerful economic engine and should remain so in 2020.
Retail sales of ag equipment were below December's monthly forecast in all categories except for over 100 horsepower tractors, which exceeded the December forecast by 37 units.
Retail sales of ag equipment were below November's monthly forecast in all categories except for over 100 horsepower tractors, which exceeded the November forecast by 36 units.
Total tractor sales in October fell about 8%, with utility tractors (40-100 horsepower) showing the only growth at up 6%. Compact tractor (under 40 horsepower) sales fell 11% last month and high horsepower tractors (over 100 horsepower) fell 18%.
Worldwide economic unrest along with political unrest both here and abroad has placed a black cloud over the U.S. agricultural economy and has slowed large equipment sales to almost a crawl.
2019 is developing into a very unique year for equipment sales. For the past several decades the under 40 horsepower class of tractors represented more than 50% of the total tractors sold in the U.S. In 2019, we expect this class of tractors will represent between 62-65% of the total tractors sold as sales for the larger tractors slide even more.
The downturn that we are experiencing today is certainly as dramatic as those early ones, but today farmers are not encumbered with massive debt and the current interest rates are very reasonable for those who have debts to service. This certainly is not a pleasant experience for anyone in the industry, but there is much more optimism than in previous downturns.
While the majority of producers are still buying their equipment outright, there continues to be a number of farmers who have been nudged toward lease contracts in order to conserve capital and still have new, dependable equipment with which to farm their land.
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In this episode of On the Record, brought to you by Associated Equipment Distributors, we take an initial look at the Dealer Business Outlook & Trends Report and what dealers are forecasting for 2025.