Our industry is navigating some very choppy waters as international trade negotiations continue. Uncertainty has created caution in farmers’ spending recently and most likely will continue until there is some resolution to the trade talks now underway.
China’s need for agricultural imports remains significant since they are faced with providing food for nearly one-third of the world’s population. The past decade has produced a growing middle class in China that has demonstrated an increased demand for not only basic foods, but also for high quality products that are only available from other parts of the world.
The strength of the U.S. economy continues to provide support for the smaller tractor sales but the recent declines in the stock markets will have a sobering effect upon some future purchases.
Our models track commodity prices, international currency exchange rates, total number of farms, total number of farms by gross production value. Here is our 2018 U.S. forecast and the rationale of how we arrived at those numbers.
2017 continues to appear to be a base-building period and, while large tractors are woefully below our original forecast, there is some evidence that they won’t go much lower in 2018.
Farm equipment sales history is replete with hills and valleys and we certainly are in a valley now. Traditionally, the range between the hilltop and the valley floor is about 20% in terms of unit sales.
Our data allows us to take a very objective view of the current situation in the agricultural equipment markets and all are pointing toward a solid base building this year. There are concerns about the export markets from several perspectives.
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The announcement of a partnership between New Holland and Bluewhite was one of the big precision stories of the summer. West Coast New Holland dealers now have the rights to sell, distribute and service Bluewhite’s aftermarket autonomy kits.